Does gaming with Vista have staying power?

A recent article about Valve has some of their people saying that Microsoft is only doing this Games for Windows certification thing to push sales of Vista and will not stick to it over time (several years at least).

Personally I'm not planning on using the fact of whether or not a game is Microsoft certified to determine if I'll play a game but I suppose the more casual gamer might want to use this or accidentally be led to believe that a game won't work unless it has a GfW certification on it. I could already see less than scrupulous sales people trying that trick at a retail store to fool the wayward mother or grandparent who just wants to get their kids the newest game on the shelf.